Earthquake Watch
When considering earthquake potential, a fair question is “Where?”. Another fair question is “When?”. We will be looking at when scientist are focusing their studies and areas of the most concern.
Japan
Faults: There are 5. The TITL, oriented in a NW–SE-trend, passes through the western part of central Japan, extending from the Sea of Japan to the Pacific ocean. It is composed mainly of five large active faults; from the northwest to southeast, the Kaburagi, Yanagase, Sekigahara, Yoro, and Ise Bay faults.
Plate: The Pacific, North American, Eurasian and Filipino Plates
Recent Earthquakes over 7.0: 2021 7.0Mw, 2021 7.1Mw, 2016 7.0Mw, 2015 7.8Mw, 2016 7.1Mw, 2013 7.1Mw, 2012 7.3Mw, more more more, then Fuskashima 2011 9.1Mw
Frequency: Very frequent and active.
The Fukashima 2011 earthquake triggered tsunami warnings throughout the Pacific basin. The tsunami raced outward from the epicentre at speeds that approached about 500 miles (800 km) per hour. It generated waves 11 to 12 feet (3.3 to 3.6 metres) high along the coasts of Kauai and Hawaii in the Hawaiian Islands chain and 5-foot (1.5-metre) waves along the island of Shemya in the Aleutian Islands chain. Several hours later 9-foot (2.7-metre) tsunami waves struck the coasts of California and Oregon in North America. Finally, some 18 hours after the quake, waves roughly 1 foot (0.3 metre) high reached the coast of Antarctica and caused a portion of the Sulzberger Ice Shelf to break off its outer edge. It killed 30.000 people.
IMPACT: Major structural damage for surrounding cities. Tsunami that would impact Hawaii, Asia, Japan, North America’s western coast and almost country boarding the Pacific.
New Madrid Seismic Zone
Plate: T
Country: United States
States: Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, and particularly Tennessee.
Size: 150 miles long, 19 miles deep.
Last Earthquake: 1968 5.5Mw, before that the 1800s produced many large quakes in the 7.0 range.
Prediction: Seismologists estimate that the New Madrid Seismic Zone has a 25 percent to 40 percent chance of producing a significant quake within the next 50 years
IMPACT: Major structural damage for surrounding cities. Would result in problems with all supply chains and transportation.
Cascadia Subduction Zone
Plate: The Explorer, Juan de Fuca, and Gorda Plates
Country: Canada & United States. Northern Vancouver Island in Canada to Northern California in the United States.
Size: 600 miles long, 19 miles deep.
Earthquakes: 1700 produced an 8.0.
Frequency: Approx every 500 years.
The Tsunami wave from an 8.0 would be expected to be 80 ft high.
The wave would hit US Pacfic Northern Coast in 15 minutes. Not enough time to prepare.
IMPACT: This is the most dangerous type of fault, a mega trust. Major structural damage for surrounding cities. Tsunami that would devastate Hawaii and impact Asia, hitting Japan, North America, California and west coast and almost country boarding the Pacific.
Sumatran Fault
Plate: Eurasian, Australian & Pacific Plates
Country: Indonesia, near the island of Sumatra
Size: Length of western side of the island, 1110 miles. 50 miles deep.
Earthquakes: Many many many, but one to note. 2004 produced a 9.1 that killed 50,000 people in Asia and on the island due to a large tsunami.
Frequency: Very active and does have large earthquakes greater than a magnitude 6 very often.
IMPACT: Major structural damage for surrounding cities. Tsunami that could reach Asia, Africa, North America, Hawaii, South America and possibility Alaska.
Hayward Fault
Plate: North American & Pacific Plates
Country: United States
State: California, offshore and through the San Francisco Peninsula.
Cities: Richmond, El Cerrito, Berkeley, Oakland, San Leandro, Castro Valley, Hayward, Union City, Fremont, and San Jose.
Size: 74 miles long, 4 miles deep.
Earthquakes: 1864 (Mw 5.3), 1868 (Mw 6.7), 1870 (Mw 5.3), 1889 (Mw 5.2)
Frequency: 140-170 years a 6.8 estimated.
Probability: Within the next 30 years
– 72% that an earthquake measuring magnitude 6.7
– 51% that an earthquake measuring magnitude 7
– 20% that an earthquake measuring magnitude 7.5
IMPACT: Most dangerous & densely populated urban fault zone in the US. Major structural damage for surrounding cities. Possible tsunami that could reach Hawaii and Asia.
San Andreas Fault
Plate: North American & Pacific Plates
Country: United States (extends into Mexico)
State: California (portions in Baja California and Sonora).
Cities: San Francisco, San Bernardino, San Juan Bautista
Size: 750 miles long, 10 miles deep.
Earthquakes: 1857, 1906 (Mw ≈7.8), 1957 (Mw 5.7), 1989 (Mw ≈6.9), 1980 (Mw ≈7.4), 2004
Frequency: Undetermined
IMPACT: Major structural damage for surrounding cities.